Betting markets’ Q1 US GDP forecast flips negative amid tariff turmoil
Bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi are wagering that the US will report negative economic growth during the first quarter of 2025.
Bettors on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are flipping bearish on the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting that the US will log an economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 in an upcoming economic data release.
The US has logged positive growth figures every quarter since 2022, and a reversal in that trend could mark the start of a recession.
The pessimistic outlook marks a stark sentiment shift for prediction markets, which had recently anticipated a positive US growth report. On April 29, consensus Q1 US growth estimates on Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, plunged from around 0.5% to -0.4% in less than 24 hours.
